Keeping lost weight off is harder than losing it. A review of the biology behind weight regain found that more than half of lost weight returns within two years, across 29 long-term weight loss studies.
People who do keep weight off share a few habits. Members of the National Weight Control Registry, a US registry of people who lost a lot of weight and kept it off, report about an hour of physical activity every day. On the type of exercise, an eight-month trial found that aerobic exercise removed more body fat than weight training, while weight training added muscle.
Why keeping weight off is harder than losing it
Losing extra body fat brings health gains even when some of the weight comes back. The same review by Hall and Kahan reports that in the Diabetes Prevention Program, a 7% weight loss over six months cut new cases of type 2 diabetes by 58%. That benefit held even though half of the lost weight returned over three years, the review adds.
The body pushes back after weight loss. According to the same review, each kilogram lost lowers daily energy use by about 20 to 30 kcal, while appetite rises by about 100 kcal per day above its level before the diet. The review states that rising appetite, more than a slower metabolism, is the main reason weight loss stalls after several months.
This pressure does not fade quickly. By five years, the meta-analysis cited in the review found that more than 80% of lost weight had returned. The review estimates that staying at the new weight takes about 300 to 500 kcal per day of lasting extra effort to offset the slower metabolism and the stronger appetite.
What people who keep weight off do every day
Wing and Phelan’s review of the registry reports that its members lost 33 kg on average and kept the loss for more than five years. The same review lists the habits they report. They stay physically active for about an hour a day, eat a low-calorie and low-fat diet, eat breakfast regularly, weigh themselves often, and eat the same way on weekdays and weekends.
Success is more common than its reputation. The review reports that about 20% of people with overweight succeed, when success means losing at least 10% of body weight and keeping it off for at least one year. It adds that people who have kept the weight off for two to five years have a much higher chance of keeping it off for longer.
The registry shows what successful people do. Its members chose to join, and they report their own diet and activity, so it cannot prove that each habit causes the success.
Cardio or weights to keep fat off: what a trial found
The STRRIDE AT/RT trial, led by Willis and colleagues, randomly assigned sedentary adults with overweight or obesity to aerobic training (cardio), resistance training (weights), or both, for eight months. According to the paper, 119 people finished with full body measurements.
The paper reports that the aerobic group trained at 65 to 80% of peak aerobic capacity, for a weekly energy cost equal to about 19 km (12 miles) of exercise. In the same trial, the weights group trained three days a week, doing 3 sets of 8 to 12 repetitions for all major muscle groups.
After eight months, the aerobic group had lost 1.66 kg of fat mass and the weights group 0.26 kg, the trial found. The combined group lost 2.44 kg of fat, which the authors found was not statistically different from aerobic training alone, while it took about twice the training time.
Lean mass (muscle and other tissue that is not fat) rose by 1.09 kg with weights and by 0.81 kg with the combination, and stayed about flat with aerobic training alone, the same trial found. The authors conclude that aerobic training is the best choice for reducing fat mass, and that a program with resistance training is needed to gain lean mass. Diet was not controlled, and the trial covered the training period only, so it does not measure long-term maintenance.
What the YouTube coach says
In a video in French, the fitness coach behind the YouTube channel Essan NFC argues that strength training and brisk walking work better than cardio for losing fat for good. The coach says cardio is followed by strong sugar cravings and leads to a plateau and then regain. The coach also recommends spacing meals and cutting sugar to keep insulin low.
These are the coach’s opinions. The claim that cardio triggers sugar cravings is unknown based on available sources. On fat loss, the STRRIDE AT/RT trial points the other way: cardio removed more fat than weights, and weights mainly added muscle.
The coach’s advice on brisk walking fits better with the registry data, because walking is aerobic exercise that most people can repeat every day. Gromeus covers this in why walking is the simplest way to lose fat.
On insulin, the Hall and Kahan review states that key parts of the carbohydrate-insulin model (the idea that carbohydrates make people fat by raising insulin) have failed experimental tests. When diets have equal calories, the review concludes that for body fat, “a calorie is a calorie” whatever the mix of carbohydrate and fat.
How to use these findings to keep weight off
Plan for the maintenance phase from the start, because the push to regain lasts for years. Aim for about an hour of activity a day, the level registry members report. Include aerobic exercise such as brisk walking to lose fat, and weight training to keep or build muscle.
Weigh yourself regularly and keep a steady eating pattern, two habits listed among registry members. For the food side, see three evidence-based rules that help people lose fat sustainably and why diet plays a bigger role in weight loss than exercise.
Sources and related information
Medical Clinics of North America – Maintenance of lost weight and long-term management of obesity – 2018
Hall and Kahan’s review (DOI 10.1016/j.mcna.2017.08.012) explains why lost weight tends to come back. It supports the regain figures from 29 long-term studies, the appetite and energy estimates per kilogram lost, the Diabetes Prevention Program result, and the evidence against the carbohydrate-insulin model.
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition – Long-term weight loss maintenance – 2005
Wing and Phelan summarize the National Weight Control Registry: average weight lost, how long it was kept off, the hour of daily activity, the other reported habits, and the estimate of how many people succeed.
Journal of Applied Physiology – Effects of aerobic and/or resistance training on body mass and fat mass in overweight or obese adults – 2012
The STRRIDE AT/RT randomized trial by Willis and colleagues (DOI 10.1152/japplphysiol.01370.2011) compared aerobic, resistance, and combined training over eight months. It provides the training doses and the fat mass and lean mass changes cited above.
Essan NFC (YouTube) – Le secret pour perdre du poids (définitivement) – 2024
The coach sets out the case for weights and walking over cardio in this French video. It is used in this article for the coach’s opinion only, and no figure is taken from it.
